Facts useful to anyone who wants to estimate COVID-19 mortality in New York City

I wanted to present some facts that would be useful to anyone interested in making a very rough estimate (l of the infection fatality rate of COVID-19. The main reason I'm putting this out there, to be honest, is because the figures pretty clearly contradict some of the more extreme claims about COVID-19 being much … Continue reading Facts useful to anyone who wants to estimate COVID-19 mortality in New York City

Putting a minimum lower bound on the COVID-19 death rate

If you enjoy this article check out my book, I’ve made it free to help you self-quarantine: https://deponysum.com/2020/03/30/something-to-read-in-quarantine-essays-2018-to-2020/ First of all, let me be clear that I am an absolute amateur. Be warned, lest I infect the world with misinformation. I'm putting this out there to try and refine a minimum lower bound for the death … Continue reading Putting a minimum lower bound on the COVID-19 death rate

We know exactly what is going to happen

The growth of Coronavirus is unpredictable, right? Wrong. The growth of an uncontrolled Coronavirus epidemic within a country is very predictable, it follows a clear exponential trend. We know what will happen if things continue as they are, and the government has all the statisticians and epidemiologists in the world to tell them this. There … Continue reading We know exactly what is going to happen