Civility

Recently there's been considerable debate about the behaviour of so-called Bernie bros in the Democratic primary, and I thought it was important to weigh in on this important issue. Now it may not be "glamorous"- who wants to talk about talking? But as Buttigieg said, the shape of our democracy is the issue that affects … Continue reading Civility

Predictit thinks Sanders can beat Trump

As of right now, Predictit gives Sanders a 48% chance of winning the Democratic nomination. Predictit gives Sanders a 30% chance of winning the presidency. With these joint facts we can calculate an implied conditional probability of Sanders winning the presidency if Sanders wins the nomination: Conditional probability of winning the election given nomination equal … Continue reading Predictit thinks Sanders can beat Trump