Facts useful to anyone who wants to estimate COVID-19 mortality in New York City

I wanted to present some facts that would be useful to anyone interested in making a very rough estimate (l of the infection fatality rate of COVID-19. The main reason I'm putting this out there, to be honest, is because the figures pretty clearly contradict some of the more extreme claims about COVID-19 being much … Continue reading Facts useful to anyone who wants to estimate COVID-19 mortality in New York City

Putting a minimum lower bound on the COVID-19 death rate

If you enjoy this article check out my book, I’ve made it free to help you self-quarantine: https://deponysum.com/2020/03/30/something-to-read-in-quarantine-essays-2018-to-2020/ First of all, let me be clear that I am an absolute amateur. Be warned, lest I infect the world with misinformation. I'm putting this out there to try and refine a minimum lower bound for the death … Continue reading Putting a minimum lower bound on the COVID-19 death rate

The Heritage Foundation Economic Freedom Index is bad

If you enjoy this post, check out my (free) book https://deponysum.com/2020/03/30/something-to-read-in-quarantine-essays-2018-to-2020/ TLDR: The problem with freedom indexes is this. They are aggregates of separate variables, some of which indicate small government, others of which indicate what would uncontroversially be regarded as ‘good government’. It is the good government indicators, not the small government indicators, which … Continue reading The Heritage Foundation Economic Freedom Index is bad

Weak correlations don’t necessarily mean weak relationships: A case study of self-report data

Scott Alexander once wrote an article on Allan Crossman’s suggestion that that parapsychology is the control group of science. In parapsychology we’ve got pretty good reasons to think nothing is going on, so the fact that people keep managing to generate significant results using the same methods they would for any experiment is an indictment of normal … Continue reading Weak correlations don’t necessarily mean weak relationships: A case study of self-report data