Epstein death: Sanity notes

I keep reading mind boggling facts about Epstein’s demise. I thought that, as a point of sanity, it might be helpful to gather them all into one place in condensed form so they wouldn’t keep wandering through my head like a macabre parade. I’d strongly recommend other people interested in the case try compiling similar lists of facts about all aspects of Epstein. As it stands there’s just so much stuff going around, and I found putting it all down in one place helped clear my head. A website with a list of “Epstein facts” could be very useful.

1. As a point of definition, in this article “Murder” is inclusive of deliberately arranging matters so that an inconvenient person in your custody can kill themselves. I think it is quite possible that Epstein took his own life but it was, in the most direct sense, an assisted suicide. I also think it’s extremely possible that he was directly murdered by a paid out prisoner, guard or even outside assassin

2. According to the New York Post the last published record they could find of a suicide at the Metropolitan Correctional Centre Special Housing Unit was in 1998(!!!)- so seemingly no suicide deaths in 20 years. Over these decades the facility has held many  prisoners, all charged with very serious crimes, many presumably with as much reason to kill themselves as Epstein. It’s hard to know how comprehensive the New York Post’s investigations were, but I think we can safely say that suicide in the MCC SHU is fairly rare.

Edit: One fair way to cut the evidence that acknowledges legitimate skepticism about the throughness of the NYP’s investigation might be: No prisoner whose suicide would be news (of which there have been many) has been found to have committed suicide in the MCC SHU since 1998 until now. So the base probability is pretty low.

3. Epstein previously either attempted suicide, or was attacked on the 23rd of July. Normally a prisoner already in special custody, of great interest to the media, who had previously attempted suicide would be under just about the highest possible level of scrutiny.

4. If Epstein’s prior “unsuccessful suicide attempt” was instead an attempted murder, as many suspect, the most likely suspect would be his then cellmate Tartaglione, a cop charged with quadruple homicide who was his cellmate during the time of the first (but not the second, successful) “suicide attempt”. Interestingly Tartaglione was found with a cellphone on the 3rd of July during a search. However Epstein was only arrested on the 6th of July- so if this phone was used to coordinate a hit attempt, advance warning that he was going to be arrested and placed at the MCC would have been required by the conspirators- a little unlikely but not impossible- in for a conspiratorial penny, in for a conspiratorial pound.

5. Epstein was apparently afraid of Tartaglione, and told his lawyers that Tartaglione was responsible for the initial “suicide attempt”.

6. Despite his alleged suicide attempt, Epstein was removed from suicide watch after six days. N.B. There is some dispute over exactly when he was removed from suicide watch, although he was certainly off suicide watch on the night of the death. Since six days is the most common figure, we’ll go with that.

7. Further, after being placed on suicide watch it is standard for prisoners to have a cellmate. His cellmate was removed 24 hours before he was found dead.

8. His guards did not perform the usual routine inspections of his cell overnight, “Finding him dead” at 6:30 AM.

9. After Epstein’s initial “suicide attempt” his lawyer Spencer Kuvin stated his belief that the “suicide attempt” was actually a murder attempt. After Epstein’s death, Spencer Kuvin stated that he believed it was a homicide.

10. Numerous people predicted that this would happen in advance.

11. According to CBS, shrieking and screaming was heard from Epstein’s cell on the Saturday morning of his death. The timeline of events here is hard to determine. CBS states:

“On the morning of Jeffrey Epstein’s death there was shouting and shrieking from his jail cell, a source familiar with the situation told CBS News. Corrections officers attempted to revive him while saying “breathe, Epstein, breathe.

But this raises a lot of questions. Did the shrieking and screaming start at 6:30 am or before? The way the passage is written tends to imply that the shrieking was quite likely contemporaneous with the guards finding him (and might have come from the guards), but it doesn’t outright state it.

12. Sources in the Epstein camp reported that he was in good spirits.

13. Apparently Epstein’s Hyoid bone was broken. This is more common in victims of homicide that suicide, but is not unknown in suicide cases. This study found hyoid fracture in 9% of suicide cases but 73% of manual strangulation cases.

EDIT: I’ve since found out the study I referred to had more extreme results than others. All studies and experts seem to agree though that fracture of the hyoid bone is more common in murder by strangulation than suicide.

14. So we have two broad families of theories which explain the observed data:

A) Epstein killed himself. It is a coincidence that he may well have been the first to do so in 20 years at the MCC SHU,, that so many people predicted he would die, and that so many powerful people potentially had an incentive to arrange it.

B) Epstein was killed or deliberately allowed to kill himself.

15. In terms of possible motivations for murder, obviously anyone from Trump to Clinton to Prince Andrew has one, as all are known to be subject to potentially incriminating Epstein material. However a strong contender with both motive and, potentially, means, is one or more intelligence organisations. Acosta, former Trump Labour secretary, oversaw the first prosecution of Epstein. When asked why he used such kid gloves, he is on the record as saying that: “I was told Epstein ‘belonged to intelligence’ and to leave it alone,” during his interview by the Trump transition team, who accepted his answer. It seems likely then that Epstein had ties to intelligence, and plausibly under these conditions, ties must be cut. Any intelligence organisation ruthless enough to cultivate ties with Epstein and get him off the previous charges would likewise be ruthless enough to kill him, should the circumstances require.

16. There is what appears to be a myth going around that there was an “unexplained camera malfunction” inside Epstein’s cell. Cameras are not placed inside cells. It is possible that there was a “camera malfunction” for a camera outside Epstein’s cell, but no evidence for this has been produced thus far.

17. A few relatively minor points.

A) Information about the death may have been posted on 4Chan by someone at the scene before it was reported in the mainstream media. Likely suspects include a Channer EMT or corrections worker.

B) One of the guards working that night was a temp who did not usually work in corrections.

C) Allegedly the guards were sleeping during the incident.


My current subjective probability distribution over possible events:

<5% Chance: Body double theory

20% Chance: Legitimate suicide

35% Chance: “Assisted” suicide deliberately allowed to happen.

40% Chance: Murder by assassin, paid off guard, or inmate.

<5%% Chance: Something else (e.g. murder by a fellow inmate who just didn’t like him and somehow managed to get into his cell without assistance from outside parties).

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