As of right now, Predictit gives Sanders a 48% chance of winning the Democratic nomination. Predictit gives Sanders a 30% chance of winning the presidency. With these joint facts we can calculate an implied conditional probability of Sanders winning the presidency if Sanders wins the nomination:
Conditional probability of winning the election given nomination equal total probability of winning the election over total probability of winning the nomination:
30/48= 62.5%
In comparison, Bloomberg has a:
13/22= 59.09% chance of winning the presidency, if made the democratic nominee.
Meanwhile Biden has a:
8/14=57% chance of winning
And Buttigieg the same as Biden
This means the prediction markets think that, of the major candidates, Sanders has the best chance of beating Trump.
Now you might think you know better than the prediction market- that you are better at predicting its results- that you know more than the gambler’s odds. If so my question to you is why aren’t you getting rich off beating predictit?
DePonySum 